Secular Sage

Russia & Ukraine

There is an anti-Russian sentiment in the west that goes back to the mid 20th century which has little justification. At best, this has led to a mistrust across the west that has led to continued NATO scope creep towards Russian borders. At worst, we are merely opportunistic war mongers. This scope creep has been contrary to, not only the Minsk accord but also countless promises since from US and NATO powers that be. Russia has every right to be nervous, no-one has undertaken as many pointless wars as the US, the legacy of “neocon” foreign policy.

It was always a silly war, supported by a silly idea that Ukraine could somehow beat Russia. The only way this outcome could have been achieved is if the US got involved directly, but this was never on the cards, nor did it have the support of populations in the US or any European country.

Hundreds of thousands of lives and billions of dollars and euros have been burned and the west is finally realizing that even the stifled support there once was for this silliness is fading.

What is worse is that Russia themselves never wanted this war, nor do they want to defeat Ukraine. All they ever wanted, and Putin has made this clear from the start, is a geographical buffer between NATO and Russia. With talks of Ukraine entering NATO and US/NATO presence in the country, they had no choice in the interests of defending this red line.

If we could negotiate this war would end quickly. the sides are not far apart. There are a few problems thought. Firstly, Zelenskyy has sold himself as a modern Churchill, his country has been led to believe that they are laying their lives down for a noble and historic cause against evil. It is problematic to go back, after all the deaths, the destruction of country, infrastructure and economy and suggest this was all one big mistake. Equally, the west has bought into this narrative, they were always predispositions to. Not only because of the negative sentiment towards Russia noted above but also because the west seems, at all levels, to be unable to accept diverse perspectives. It is our way or the highway. This perspective has infiltrated western culture whereby only one view is acceptable on almost anything, including gender, race, politics, immigration, abortion and Donald Trump. We all must believe what are sometimes wacky ideas unprecedented in human history. This sort of leftist fundamentalism has infiltrated foreign policy. Putin and Russia are not legitimate options, it is democracy, free markets or the highway. He is not treated as an equal with different perceptive, he is evil like every Trump supporter. Ironically, Trump may be our only hope.

It’s time to negotiate, though now from a position of considerably less strength and yet considerably more vested interest. Perhaps the only way is through a new administration in DC, and one not so cavalier about dabbling in everyone’s affairs while also showing strength when it matters. If something is worth doing it is worth doing properly. Russia needs to be given parts of Ukraine, where cultural ties are strong, and even willing democratic support exists, in order to end this peacefully.

If this administration remains negotiation will be tricky. The end will likely be Russia securing their interests with Ukraine left unstable for years as Russia has no interest in occupation beyond the buffer they need.

The solution is simple: the US needs to play bad cop, force Ukraine to the negotiating table with threat of retraction of support, this will enable Zelenskyy to save face. Putin needs to be given what he should have been given before this war started, military security. Trump is a negotiator, he gets it and he has less skin in the game.

Regime change is one of the wonders of democracy.